The DOJ vs. Apple ruling lets developers use third-party payment systems, bypassing Apple's 15-30% fee. The celebration is premature. Most developers haven't done the conversion math.
The Hidden Subsidy
Apple's fee buys a specific, expensive thing: a checkout flow optimized over a decade of A/B testing. One tap, Face ID, done. No browser redirect. No payment form. No manual credit card entry.
Ecommerce data consistently shows checkout abandonment rates of 15-30% when friction is introduced. A developer saving 30% on Apple's commission but losing 20-40% of conversions to a clunkier third-party checkout has lost money on a net basis. The fee wasn't just a tax -- it was buying conversion infrastructure that most developers can't replicate.
Who This Actually Helps
Spotify and Netflix have the UX resources, brand trust, and existing payment relationships to build competitive mobile checkout flows. They'll benefit. Most developers are not Spotify or Netflix.
A solo developer or small studio doesn't have a payments team, mobile-optimized checkout infrastructure, or the testing budget to iterate toward Apple's conversion rates. For these developers, the ruling creates an option they'll exercise at their own expense.
The Probable Sequence
Developers shift to third-party payments expecting to keep the 30% they were paying Apple. Users encounter unfamiliar, friction-heavy checkout processes. Conversion rates drop. App ratings suffer from payment complaints. Revenue declines exceed commission savings. Developers quietly revert to Apple's IAP system.
The ruling may end up solidifying Apple's payment dominance rather than disrupting it. The difference: developers will now choose Apple's system after experiencing the alternative, rather than being compelled. Voluntary lock-in is stronger than mandatory lock-in.
Before chasing lower fees, calculate the opportunity cost of lost conversions. The math isn't obvious, and for most apps, it doesn't favor leaving.